The new AI playbook: Swapping opex for capex

Author: Fidelity Investments

Companies have been self-funding their massive artificial intelligence (AI) investments, and opex savings could help them continue to do so.

Highlights

  • Despite trillion-dollar ambitions, U.S. public companies have largely financed AI buildouts with free cash flow, avoiding the debt-fueled excesses of past tech cycles.
  • The operating expenditures (opex) growth of Mag 7 companies has slowed amid capital expenditure (capex) acceleration, providing a potential blueprint for other companies to fund their AI-driven efficiency projects into the future.
  • Unlike prior investment booms, return on invested capital (ROIC) among major technology firms has remained resilient, suggesting AI is already boosting output and offsetting the heavier capital intensity.
     
Technology capital spending: Then vs. now
Line graph shows technology capital spending from 1992 to 2026. One line shows capital expenditures and the other shows free cash flow. Both have upward trends.
CAPEX = capital expenditures. FCF = free cash flow. Based on an analysis of the technology stocks within the top 3,000 U.S. stocks. Log= logarithmic. Source: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, as of 12/31/25

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Authors
Fidelity Investments
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